Where's Michigan State projected in latest bracketology after beating Illinois?

Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA;  Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) celebrates a big basket against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images
Feb 7, 2026; East Lansing, Michigan, USA; Michigan State Spartans forward Jaxon Kohler (0) celebrates a big basket against the Illinois Fighting Illini during the first half at Jack Breslin Student Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Dale Young-Imagn Images | Dale Young-Imagn Images

Michigan State had a bit of a head-scratching past week that has fans wondering how it could affect the Spartans' NCAA Tournament seeding down the line.

The Spartans lost to Minnesota on the road after trailing the entire time, and that was their worst loss of the season. Minnesota was just 10-12 and reeling after losing several games in a row, and the Gophers were shorthanded. It was a tough loss, but it felt like one of those typical early-February losses for Tom Izzo before he rallies the troops for a run.

This Minnesota loss capped off a two-game skid, and then Michigan State went home to beat No. 5 Illinois in one of the more clutch victories of the season, 85-82, in overtime.

With the win, Michigan State got the perfect bounce-back and now sits at 20-4 on the season and 10-3 in Big Ten play. The Spartans will need some things to go their way in order for them to have a chance at a second straight Big Ten title, but there's still a very good chance that it happens. Michigan State needs Nebraska, Illinois, and Michigan to lose one more game, and then anything can happen.

The horrible road loss to Minnesota hurt, but the Illinois win returned the hope. After losing two of the past three games, Michigan State's bracketology projections have taken a bit of a hit.

Michigan State has slid a bit over the past 4 games

I like to check in on the bracketology projection updates every week just to see where all of the experts have Michigan State landing, and they've changed quite a bit over the past two weeks.

The Spartans nearly lost a road game against a bad Rutgers team, prevailing in overtime thanks to a then-healthy Divine Ugochukwu, before losing at home to Michigan in just a really poor performance, and then carrying that hangover into a road game against Minnesota, resulting in another ugly loss. Michigan State fortunately rebounded against Illinois to win in overtime, book-ending a weird stretch with another extra-frame win.

So where does that put the Spartans in the latest bracketology?

Joe Lunardi: No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region
CBS Sports: No. 3 seed in the South Region
Andy Katz: No. 3 seed in the South Region
TeamRankings: No. 3 seed

The consensus currently is a No. 3 seed in either the South or Midwest regions. That's about a whole seed line lower than it was before the Michigan game.

Time for Izzo and the Spartans to prove people wrong again.

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