Michigan State is 1-0-1 against the spread this season, pushing in the opener after being 10-point favorites against Toledo and then the Spartans covered as 17-point favorites against Eastern Michigan.
Zero losses against the spread is a good start to the Pat Fitzgerald era, but even with that sparkling start, Vegas is not expecting a close game from Michigan State against Notre Dame in Week 3.
Michigan State has been a combined 27-point favorite against Eastern Michigan and Toledo to begin the year, but Notre Dame is going to exceed that number in Week 3.
That’s right, Vegas is expecting Michigan State to get its doors blown off in South Bend.
The opening line is not pretty.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 14.
Line: Notre Dame -29.5
Over/Under: 52.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -6500 | Michigan State +2000
These are the types of lines you’d see for a Group of Five team against a national title contender or an FCS team against a Power Four program. This is one of the most lopsided spreads that Michigan State has seen in years and the past five seasons have been a nightmare. This is more so an endorsement of Notre Dame as an elite contender and less about Michigan State being “bad” — although Vegas doesn’t think the Spartans have a chance.
This line feels a little too lopsided, but Notre Dame has looked scary-good through two games, beating Wisconsin 41-13 and Rice 52-0. Vegas must see Wisconsin and Michigan State on the same level.
Still, not sure this line is fair considering the Spartans actually have an identity.
Michigan State’s identity will make a difference
At the end of the Mel Tucker era and throughout the Jonathan Smith era, Michigan State had an identity crisis. The culture in East Lansing left a lot to be desired as the football program went through an embarrassing era and it was assumed that games against top teams would end in blowouts.
Michigan State hasn’t pulled off a true upset in years and Vegas doesn’t believe that’ll change to begin the Fitzgerald era, especially not in South Bend.
Fitzgerald has given his first team at Michigan State an identity. The Spartans play hard-nosed football (outside of the second quarter against EMU) and they are a run-first football team that had 258 yards on the ground against the Eagles. They have an identity and they’re going to lean into it, but they also have the luxury of featuring a talented quarterback who can take over with his arm if he needs to. He likely will with the Spartans presumably playing from behind on Saturday.
Unlike Smith’s and Tucker’s teams, Fitzgerald’s team has an identity and that usually helps in big games like these against elite opponents.
No, that doesn’t mean that I’m predicting an upset, but rather a closer game than Tucker or Smith would have coached against these Irish. The Spartans will cover this insanely lopsided spread.
Good teams win, great teams cover. That’s how it goes, right?
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