Saturday’s Michigan State vs Nebraska game will kick off Big Ten play for both teams and although the Spartans are the hosting team, they’re going to be the underdogs, believe it or not.
Michigan State is 2-1 on the year after losing its first game to Notre Dame in Week 3 by 17 points on the road. The Spartans gave an impressive effort through the first half but just ran out of gas in the final 30 minutes as they watched a seven-point deficit turn into a 17-point hole by the end of the game.
Now Michigan State will host 3-0 Nebraska in Week 4 to begin the Big Ten era for Pat Fitzgerald in East Lansing. He’s already acquainted with the Big Ten after spending over a decade in Evanston with Northwestern and he’s also very familiar with Nebraska, posting a 6-6 record against the Cornhuskers as head coach of the Wildcats.
Nebraska has been getting some love for its perfect start to the year despite playing a couple of MAC teams and North Dakota. The Cornhuskers’ closest game was a 49-21 win over Ohio which is probably why Vegas is valuing Nebraska a little more than Michigan State.
And the opening line shows that. Michigan State started as a 4.5-point underdog, and now it’s a 5.5-point dog. The line is moving in the wrong direction.
Odds via DraftKings as of Tuesday, Sept. 22.
Line: Nebraska -5.5
Over/Under: 48.5
Moneyline: Nebraska -218 | Michigan State +180
If you’re surprised by this initial line, you’re not alone. Michigan State is coming off a game that seemed to light a fire under Fitzgerald which win, in turn, do the same to his players, but Vegas sees the 3-0 Cornhuskers as the better team, even on the road.
A home team usually gets 2-3 points just for that advantage so if this were a neutral-site game, Nebraska would probably be somewhere in the -7.5 or -8.5 range.
That’s actually pretty shocking. The talent gap isn’t that large.
Michigan State needs to beat Nebraska for bowl hopes
Michigan State’s margin for error is very slim this season and it’s because the Spartans don’t have the talent to just outplay every team on their schedule. They’re going to be in a talent deficit in most matchups so that means when they get a solid opportunity to beat a decent team at home, they need to take full advantage.
Nebraska is a solid team but they’re not out of the Spartans’ league like an Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, or USC. The Cornhuskers are close to the same tier as Michigan State.
But a lost here could send the Spartans into a spiral, and with a road game against Wisconsin approaching in Week 5, this could snowball into 2-3 losses in a row which would crush bowl hopes. A win over Nebraska would have Michigan State sitting at 3-1 with games against Wisconsin, UCLA, Washington, Illinois, Northwestern, Michigan, and Rutgers remaining which are all winnable. Still, 3-1 looks and feels a lot more promising than 2-2 and eventually 2-3.
Fitzgerald is facing a huge opportunity on Saturday evening, and a win would make a bowl game feel much more attainable than it felt at the beginning of the year.
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