Hey everyone, I’m here to deliver you the annual Moneyball statistical overreaction for Michigan State basketball.
We’ve all seen the infamous storylines. Pierre Brooks is looking like the next big thing. Frankie Fidler is showing that he could be a go-to scorer in East Lansing. And my personal favorite, Tum Tum Nairn is becoming a 3-point specialist at Moneyball.
While none of those now ice-cold takes obviously came true and Moneyball has been known to inflate stats and play very little defense, there are some instances where the perceived improvements do translate to the regular season. If this recent improvement by a few Spartans is any indication of what we could expect this season, I think a national title is very much within reach.
Michigan State usually gets some 3-point progress reports from Moneyball. And like I said, they need to be taken with a grain of salt but they are often indicators of improvement.
We saw Coen Carr hitting threes in Moneyball over the past couple of years and then after not attempting a single one as a freshman, to making 21 in 76 attempts as a junior. He also shot 33 percent as a sophomore on 15 attempts. It was a solid sign that improvement was coming.
So when I looked at the 3-point leaders at Moneyball so far, I feel pretty encouraged about a couple of players’ long-range improvement. Actually, more than just a couple.
Here’s what the 3-point makes leaderboard looks like through four games:
- Jordan Scott: 13
- Jeremy Fears: 12
- Jasiah Jervis: 12
- Carlos Medlock: 11 (3 games)
- Kaleb Glenn: 11
- Cam Ward: 10
- Julius Avent: 9
- Coen Carr: 9 (3 games)
- Matthew Watkins: 9
First of all, it’s great to see strictly Spartans on the leaderboard. But second, are we noticing Cam Ward hitting 10, Jeremy Fears right behind the leader with 12, Carlos Medlock knocking down 11 in three games, Coen Carr hitting nine in three, and the walk-on rounding things out with nine? We all see that, right?
I like what I’m seeing from the “non-shooters” and freshmen.
Michigan State could have shooters at all five positions
Walk with me for a second and imagine what a Michigan State team with Cam Ward and Coen Carr as legitimate 3-point threats would look like. Not just that, but a true threat off the bench in Medlock and a much-improved Fears paired with a knockdown specialist in Jasiah Jervis in the backcourt.
Imagine how all that could look.
And then you add in a couple of centers who can step out and hit the three and you have one of the scariest rotations in college basketball. That feels like a limitless offense. That’s if the 3-point shooting at Moneyball actually translates to obvious improvement.
Imagine a sharpshooting lineup like this:
- Jeremy Fears (improves to 35ish percent)
- Jasiah Jervis
- Jordan Scott
- Coen Carr
- Jesse McCulloch (Anton Bonke can shoot 3s, but McCulloch has the edge)
And if Ward improves and becomes at least a threat to take threes with Medlock also coming off the bench as an apparent flamethrower, this team could be a nightmare all season.
These are all big ifs but I like what I’m seeing on the Moneyball leaderboard.
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