The first spring of the Pat Fitzgerald era is officially in the books and Michigan State fans now have a better grasp on expectations for the upcoming season.
While the Showcase didn’t exactly tell us whether or not to bet the over on Vegas’ somewhat disrespectful win total which is set at 3.5, it did give us all a better idea of which players could break out and who’s standing out as the team’s leaders.
Fitzgerald also said that the team doesn’t have many clear starters outside of Jordan Hall and Alessio Milivojevic which only means that there are going to be intense position battles throughout fall camp.
The Spartans also weren’t fully healthy so we didn’t get to see a good chunk of players who will be competing for starting snaps this season.
There are a lot of question marks facing the Spartans entering the season, but what are the best and worst-case scenarios following the first spring of the Fitzgerald era?
Worst-case scenario for Michigan State in 2026
Let’s start with the bad news.
I think in the worst-case scenario, both the offensive and defensive lines struggle again, leading to another season without a bowl game because Michigan State just can’t establish itself up front. In this scenario, Milivojevic has a disappointing season because he’s constantly running for his life and Cam Edwards doesn’t have the 1,000-yard rushing season that I’m expecting.
The defense, too, struggles, but still shows some promise with young assistants like Max Bullough and Winston DeLattiboudere III breathing some life into the program.
In this worst-case, I see Michigan State losing all five of its road games as well as Washington, Oregon, and Illinois or Nebraska. I think Michigan State goes 4-8 in the absolute worst-case scenario.
Best-case scenario for Michigan State in 2026
Now that the negative side is out of the way, I believe that the best-case scenario for Michigan State this season is 9-3.
In this scenario, Michigan State picks up a huge road win over Michigan and beats a ranked Washington team and a potentially-ranked Illinois team. The Spartans go on the road to beat Wisconsin, UCLA, and Rutgers on top of Michigan while their only losses on the season would be Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Oregon. I could also see the Spartans beating Wisconsin and losing to Michigan, but in the best-case, they beat the Wolverines.
If this is to happen, Milivojevic needs to have a 3,000-yard season and minimal turnovers, Edwards must rush for 1,000 yards, and the defense needs to show vast improvement as well as the offensive line.
So, to recap, the worst case for this Michigan State team is 4-8 while the best case is 9-3.
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