The 2026 Big Ten Tournament tips off on Tuesday evening and goes through Sunday afternoon’s title game, and Michigan State fans are hoping that this is the year the Spartans win it once again.
The field is officially set and after a season in which Michigan ran away with the regular-season title, the target on the Wolverines’ back will be huge this week.
Will we see a Michigan vs. Michigan State rematch in the title game on Sunday? Let’s predict each game of each round of the tourney.
First Round (Tuesday)
Oregon vs. Maryland (5 p.m. ET)
Maryland has been bad this season, like really bad. Oregon has also been bad, but the injury bug has played a big part in those struggles. With Nate Bittle back, I don’t see Oregon losing this one.
Prediction: Oregon
Northwestern vs. Penn State (25 min. after Game 1)
Northwestern has one of the best scorers in college basketball and Penn State has really struggled offensively this year. The first matchup went to Northwestern by 23, and I expect Chris Collins to coach his team to a mini run in the Big Ten Tournament.
Prediction: Northwestern
Second Round (Wednesday)
Iowa vs. Oregon (12 p.m. ET)
Iowa won the matchup during the regular season, but the Ducks didn’t have Bittle. I don’t necessarily think the Ducks would have won if they had Bittle, but it would’ve been much closer, especially at home. I think this one’s close, but Iowa pulls it out in the end.
Prediction: Iowa
USC vs. Washington (25 min. after Game 1)
It’s tough to beat a team three times in one season and Washington will have the chance to against a defeated USC team that lost Chad Baker-Mazara about a week ago. The Trojans are 0-2 without him with an average loss margin of 20 points. I think they fall to 0-3 without CBM.
Prediction: Washington
Indiana vs. Northwestern (6:30 p.m. ET)
Indiana absolutely needs this game but Northwestern may just be the Hoosiers’ kryptonite. After losing two straight games to top-10 teams, Northwestern came to town with a chance for Indiana to add to its NCAA Tournament resume. The Wildcats pulled off the upset after being down big early. Indiana needs a run and we’ll see the best version of them in a while.
Prediction: Indiana
Rutgers vs. Minnesota (25 min. after Game 3)
If you’re anything like me, you’re probably still salty that Michigan State lost at Minnesota a few weeks ago but you also would hate to face a pesky Rutgers team for a third time after two gut-wrenching wins (yes, those apparently exist). I just think Rutgers is “hot” right now, going 4-3 over its past seven games with a sweaty finish against MSU. This one goes to the Scarlet Knights.
Prediction: Rutgers
Third Round (Thursday)
Ohio State vs. Iowa (12 p.m. ET)
Ohio State lost its only matchup against Iowa this season but I don’t see the Hawkeyes sweeping Bruce Thornton and the Buckeyes. This will be one of the better games of the tournament, and I see Ohio State sneaking by and getting into the NCAA Tournament.
Prediction: Ohio State
Wisconsin vs. Washington (25 min. after Game 1)
Wisconsin is going to be really scary this month. The Badgers absolutely cooked Purdue on Saturday in West Lafayette with what felt like a million 3-pointers and they’ve beaten every single top team in the conference this year, including Michigan. I expect the Badgers to roll.
Prediction: Wisconsin
Purdue vs. Indiana (6:30 p.m. ET)
Matt Painter is going to have Purdue playing like a team possessed after a horrendous final month of the regular season. This team is just too talented to not win a couple of games and make noise in the Big Ten Tournament. I think we’ll see a lopsided win (again) here by the Boilermakers over the Hoosiers.
Prediction: Purdue
UCLA vs. Rutgers (25 min. after Game 3)
Everyone and their brother is picking UCLA to win this game, but it just makes too much sense that Rutgers would win to set up another matchup with Michigan State. This March has already proven to be crazy, and I think Rutgers wins on a buzzer-beater and sets up another matchup with the Spartans — “hooray” says every MSU fan.
Prediction: Rutgers
Quarterfinals (Friday)
Michigan vs. Ohio State (12 p.m. ET)
Ohio State gave Michigan a battle the first time they played, but the second matchup wasn’t nearly as close. I think this one will be more like the first one with the Wolverines struggling a little with Ohio State before pulling away late. Michigan is a matchup nightmare for most teams.
Prediction: Michigan
Illinois vs. Wisconsin (25 min. after Game 1)
This is going to be the best game of the quarterfinals as the Badgers and Illini will be going back and forth for an entire 40 minutes — and maybe even an overtime or two. Illinois is going to finally get the best of Wisconsin in a game that will keep everyone on the edge of their seats.
Prediction: Illinois
Nebraska vs. Purdue (6:30 p.m. ET)
Purdue is going to be flying high after drubbing Indiana, but Nebraska hasn’t forgotten that overtime loss in Lincoln a month ago. The Cornhuskers are going to play one of their best games against a ranked team since Michigan State and it’ll end in the same result.
Prediction: Nebraska
Michigan State vs. Rutgers (25 min. after Game 3)
Another gut-wrenching matchup for the Spartans against Rutgers. For some reason, Steve Pikiell has Tom Izzo’s number, and he always plays the Hall of Famer close. Not this time. Rutgers isn’t going to shoot 8-for-8 over a two-minute stretch this time. Michigan State is going to finally have a stress-free win over the Scarlet Knights.
Prediction: Michigan State
Semifinals (Saturday)
Michigan vs. Illinois (1 p.m. ET)
Illinois is going to get one more crack at Michigan after losing the regular-season matchup in Champaign in Morez Johnson’s return. That was a letdown game for the Illini who came in a little too amped up and Michigan has rolled ever since. Michigan is playing at a different level than anyone else but Duke right now and I think the Wolverines will be too much for Illinois again.
Prediction: Michigan
Nebraska vs. Michigan State (25 min. after Game 1)
This was one of the rematches that I wanted to see for Michigan State. Nebraska got the better of the Spartans all the way back on Jan. 2 and I think both teams are incredibly different now. Michigan State has gotten better at the end of the year and Nebraska stumbled after that 20-0 start — the Cornhuskers are 6-5 since. Michigan State exacts revenge and gets another shot at Michigan.
Prediction: Michigan State
Championship (Sunday)
Michigan vs. Michigan State (3:30 p.m. ET)
Jaxon Kohler predicted that Michigan State would face Michigan again, and I’m just going to believe him. He’s going to lead the Spartans to the Big Ten Championship against Michigan for what’s going to be a third matchup — Michigan leads 2-0. Dusty May has gotten the best of Izzo twice this season and his team is a bad matchup for Michigan State.
However, I can’t see Izzo getting out-coached by May for a third time this season, and I can’t see Kohler losing three straight times to Michigan at the end of his Big Ten career.
Jeremy Fears will show up in a big way, Kohler will go off for 20 again, and Coen Carr will have a revenge game as the Spartans pull a 2013-14 Michigan State and lose the two regular-season matchups before winning the Big Ten Tournament title over the Wolverines.
Prediction: MIchigan State 78, Michigan 74