Michigan vs Michigan State final odds and a prediction

Michigan State's Aidan Chiles, center, celebrates his touchdown against UCLA during the first quarter on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Aidan Chiles, center, celebrates his touchdown against UCLA during the first quarter on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

It’s late-October, so you know what that means: it’s time for the annual Michigan vs Michigan State football game. The Spartans and Wolverines will meet up again on Saturday evening in East Lansing with the Paul Bunyan Trophy on the line.

Michigan State is hoping to bring Paul home for the first time since 2021 while Michigan is attempting to hold on to it for a fourth straight year.

Jonathan Smith’s seat is heating up while Sherrone Moore’s cooled off last weekend with a 24-7 win over Washington at home. The two coaches still have a lot to prove, but Smith is feeling a bit more ugency seeing as he knows an 0-2 start vs. Michigan to his career along with five straight losses this season and a bowl game in doubt (again) would likely cost him his job.

There’s a lot on the line on Saturday night, and Michigan State has the home-field advantage. It’s time for the Spartans to finally show up and make a statement.

Does Vegas see an upset happening? Well, the Wolverines opened as two-touchdown favorites, and that line hasn’t move much in Michigan State’s direction.

Note: Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Oct. 25.

Line: Michigan -14
Over/Under: 47.5
Moneyline: Michigan -550 | Michigan State +410

Vegas isn’t giving Michigan State much of a chance on its home field. This is kind of surprising considering it’s a rivalry game and the Wolverines aren’t exactly world beaters.

I think Michigan State more than holds its own on Saturday night and picks up a huge rivalry win. The Spartans haven’t won this game since 2021, but that’s about to change. Aidan Chiles accounts for three total touchdowns and Nick Marsh scores the game-winner to send the fans home happy — finally.

Final score: Michigan 24, Michigan State 28

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