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Michigan State vs Toledo final betting odds and a prediction

Will the Spartans get off to a strong start to the Pat Fitzgerald era?
Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald, left, and Nick Sharpe lead the team walk to the stadium before the football game against Toledo on Friday, Sept. 4, 2026, at in East Lansing.
Michigan State’s head coach Pat Fitzgerald, left, and Nick Sharpe lead the team walk to the stadium before the football game against Toledo on Friday, Sept. 4, 2026, at in East Lansing. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Pat Fitzgerald era is about to get underway and there are some jitters in the air as the Spartans are about to begin a new chapter. Friday night’s Michigan State vs Toledo game will be a great first test for the first-year head coach as he embarks on his comeback tour.

Michigan State is returning some key players from the end of the Jonathan Smith era like Alessio Milivojevic, Chrishon McCray, Rod Bullard, Jordan Hall, Nikai Martinez, and Charles Brantley, among others. The team is going to have a nice mix of veterans and youth and Fitzgerald has already said that he plans on playing a lot of guys early on.

Fans are anticipating a program turnaround and that starts on Friday night when the Rockets come to town. They’ll be without Jason Candle for the first time in a decade and they’re coming off a second-place finish in the MAC after an 8-4 regular season.

Mike Jacobs has come over from Mercer and he feels good about the players that he’s brought with him. He takes over a Toledo program that has been one of the best in the MAC for years and many experts believe that he’ll lead the Rockets to the top of the conference in 2026.

This isn’t going to be a cakewalk for the Spartans, by any means, and Vegas agrees.

Final odds for Michigan State vs Toledo

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 4.

Line: Michigan State -10
Over/Under: 48.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -395 | Toledo +310

Vegas doesn’t expect this one to be a blowout. Actually, it believes that this one is going to be a heck of a lot closer than people anticipated even a week ago.

Michigan State is a double-digit favorite which is up from a previous update where the Spartans dropped to just 9.5-point favorites. At least the line is moving back in Michigan State’s direction.

Prediction for Michigan State vs Toledo

It’s hard to really get a good feel for the team before we get to see it in action for the first time, but the Spartans are going to take care of business on Friday night despite all the upset talk.

Michigan State is going to rush out to a 14-3 lead at halftime and then score on its first drive in the second half before coasting to a pretty stress-free win despite the fear-mongering that has been going on throughout the week.

Final score: Toledo 13, Michigan State 27 (season prediction record: 0-0)

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