Thursday’s Michigan State vs Purdue showdown in West Lafayette will be the third top-10 opponent that the Spartans have faced over the past three weeks.
For Purdue, Michigan State is the third top-15 opponent that the Boilermakers have faced over the past couple of weeks as well. During that span, Michigan State is 1-1 against top-10 opponents and Purdue is also 1-1. Something’s got to give on Thursday night.
Michigan State has a 4-3 record against ranked teams this season and Purdue is also 4-3. It’s kind of wild how similar the two teams are against elite opponents.
The key for Michigan State is defense. It has to play its usual elite brand of defense and it’s going to have a shot until the very end against the Boilermakers.
When Michigan State holds teams under 70 points this season, it’s 17-2 with both losses coming against top-15 teams by a total of eight points. When Purdue is held under 70 points this season, it’s just 2-3 with its two wins over unranked teams by a total of nine points.
There are a lot of opposing forces at play heading into Thursday night’s showdown at Mackey Arena, and Vegas is starting to lean more on Purdue’s side.
The Michigan State vs Purdue line is moving quickly
Michigan State opened as a 5.5-point underdog at Mackey, but the line is quickly moving in Purdue’s favor even more. It seems like all the money coming in is on the Boilermakers.
Something to monitor.
Odds via DraftKings as of Thursday, Feb. 26
Line: Purdue -7.5
Over/Under: 142.5
Moneyline: Michigan State +260 | Purdue -325
This feels very much like a game that Michigan State is going to come out prepared for and will give the Boilermakers all they can handle. The Spartans are likely out of the Big Ten title hunt barring a miracle (Michigan losing out, MSU winning out), but there’s still la lot to play for in terms of NCAA Tournament and Big Ten Tournament seeding.
A win for Michigan State likely locks it in for a 3-seed while a loss, especially a lopsided one, could drop the Spartans all the way to a five.
I think Michigan State holds its own, Jeremy Fears has an incredible game, Jaxon Kohler gets back on track, and Coen Carr wows Mackey with some huge dunks, but it won’t be quite enough as Purdue holds on for a slim victory, continuing the Spartans’ drought.
Prediction: Michigan State 70, Purdue 73