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Michigan State vs Louisville opening line puts Tom Izzo on upset alert in Round 2

Vegas doesn’t have a ton of faith in Michigan State.
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans center Carson Cooper (15) dunks during the second half against the North Dakota State Bison during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images
Mar 19, 2026; Buffalo, NY, USA; Michigan State Spartans center Carson Cooper (15) dunks during the second half against the North Dakota State Bison during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Keybank Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

After beating North Dakota State by 25 points on Thursday night, Michigan State had to immediately shift its focus to Louisville which is the Spartans’ suburbs-round opponent.

With the Michigan State vs Louisville game next on the docket in Buffalo after Thursday night’s Michigan vs Howard. The Spartans will play Louisville on Saturday afternoon after the Cardinals held off an explosive comeback attempt from South Florida in the closing minutes.

The Spartans didn’t have nearly as much trouble as the Cardinals, dominating from start to finish on Thursday evening to improve to 26-7 on the season and now Izzo is 5-0 in first-round games sine that UCLA loss in the First Four back in 2021.

Michigan State looked good in essentially every facet of Thursday’s game, covering the 16.5-point spread against North Dakota State to really silence some doubters.

The odds for the Michigan State vs Louisville are not high on the Spartans.

Opening odds for Michigan State vs Louisville

The odds are clearly in Michigan State’s favor, but they’re not nearly as lopsided as they should be after Michigan State won by 25 and Louisville held on against a surging South Florida team.

Odds via DraftKings as of Thursday, March 19

Line: Michigan State -4.5
Over/Under: 150.5
Moneyline: Michigan State -205 | Louisville +170

Michigan State is clearly the favorite here, but this line doesn’t exactly reflect a 3-seed that probably should’ve been a 2-seed beating the 14-seed by 25 points and the 6-seed holding off a late surge from the 11-seed to advance to the second round.

The Spartans dominated the Bison from start to finish and there was really nothing to dislike about their win over North Dakota State to advance them to the second round on Saturday.

Being only a 4.5-point favorite is interesting, especially when you consider that the Spartans looked a whole lot better in the first round than the sixth-seeded Cardinals.

Saturday’s game should be interesting as a battle of new blue bloods.

Tom Izzo always says that if the team can get him through the first weekend, he’ll do his best to get them through the next weekend. A win on Saturday gets the Spartans to their second straight Sweet 16.

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