College football is back this weekend and that means that bettors are scrambling to make their last-minute win total bets. For anyone who has seen Michigan State’s win total has been one of the more scrutinized numbers this offseason.
DraftKings has Michigan State’s win total set at 3.5 this season with over 4.5 coming in at +130. There is some serious money to be made if Michigan State exceed expectations.
That low projection is nothing new as the Spartans have been in that 4.5 range for a couple of years now and even though the coaching staff has changed, Vegas is still as down on Michigan State as ever before. Anyone with even a lick of ball knowledge is probably hammering that over, but other sportsbooks have it set at 4.5 wins.
That makes things a little trickier.
However, a good chunk of money in terms of college football overs has gone toward Michigan State’s number. In fact, Michigan State’s 4.5 wins is the fifth most-bet over in college football, per BetMGM.
Five most-bet college football Overs (by total wagers) at @BetMGM sportsbooks:
— Ben Fawkes (@BFawkes22) August 25, 2026
1. Oklahoma O 8.5
2. Colorado O 4.5
3. Nebraska O 5.5
4. UCLA O 6.5
5. Michigan State O 4.5
Ahead of Michigan State are UCLA, Nebraska, Colorado, and Oklahoma, but it’s worth noting that the Spartans are tied for the lowest win total on that list with the Buffaloes. Both are great bets.
While this isn’t betting advice and rather just what I plan on doing, the over seems like a great value and it’s something that I’ll probably be hammering before the season kicks off. Actually, if there’s an alternate over of 5.5 or 6.5, there’s a chance that I’ll smash that, too.
Michigan State is going to make a bowl game this season. Pat Fitzgerald is just too good of a coach to fall in line with the mediocrity of the past four seasons.
There are at least 5 wins on Michigan State’s schedule
Looking at the schedule, there are at least five wins out there for the Spartans.
The first two should come in the first two weeks of the season against Toledo and Eastern Michigan, respectively. Although Mark Dantonio did it in 2009, there’s just no excuse for losing to a MAC opponent at home. We’re not going to talk about that Dan LeFevour game.
After that, Michigan State’s next best chance for a win will be on Sept. 26 in East Lansing against Nebraska. Most predictions that I’ve seen have the Spartans losing this one, but they’re going to win that and lose the following week at Wisconsin.
With a 3-2 record ahead of a two-game home stand, Michigan State will take care of both Illinois and Northwestern to improve to 5-2. Yes, this is as bold as it gets.
That means that all Michigan State will have to do in the final five games of the regular season is win one game, if my prediction holds. With opponents like UCLA and Rutgers still on the schedule, that should be more than possible, if not likely. Heck, even Michigan and Washington could be winnable.
Am I drinking the Kool-Aid? Maybe, but there are at least five wins on this schedule. It’s up to Fitzgerald and Co. to take care of business.
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