Michigan State’s 43-point Maryland win played major factor in latest bracket projection

Michigan State's Carson Cooper dunks against Maryland during the first half on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing.
Michigan State's Carson Cooper dunks against Maryland during the first half on Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, at the Breslin Center in East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Tom Izzo watched his Michigan State basketball team beat Maryland by 43 points on Saturday and immediately thought to temper fans’ expectations for the team because the toughest games are still ahead of the Spartans.

Winning a conference game by nearly 50 points is unheard of these days, but Michigan State was able to dominate the Terrapins from start to finish, taking a huge lead into the half before extending it in the second half. They probably could’ve won by 50, but Izzo called off the dogs after a couple of Coen Carr alley-oops late in the second half made it a 40-point game.

The win was Michigan State’s sixth in a row, and all of them have been by double figures. The Spartans will take that streak into Tuesday night against Rutgers.

Before then, however, we need to talk about the latest bracketology.

Joe Lunardi updates his ESPN bracketology every Tuesday, and while Izzo was telling fans not to get carried away by the Maryland blowout, the veteran bracketologist did just that.

According to Tuesday’s update, Michigan State jumped a seed line, coming in as a 2-seed for the first time since losing by two on the road against Nebraska. Lunardi has Michigan State as a 2-seed in the West Region, facing 15-seed Lipscomb in the first round and then the winner of Villanova vs. Ohio State in the second round. The 3-seed in the region is Gonzaga, the 4-seed is Vanderbilt, the 5-seed is St. John’s, and the 1-seed is the best team in the country right now: Arizona.

Interesting potential draw.

Other bracketologists are also high on Michigan State

Some other prominent bracketologists are also high on Michigan State as a potential 2/3 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, but I still wouldn’t count out the 1-seed.

Michigan State has a relatively favorable schedule until the final four games of the regular season where the Spartans will travel to Indiana, Purdue, and Michigan. Win two of those, and a 1-seed is entirely possible.

Here’s where other bracketologists have Michigan State projected:

TeamRankings: 2-seed (15% chance for a 1-seed)
USAToday: 3-seed
CBS Sports: 3-seed
The Bracketeer: 2-seed

The Spartans are in a good spot right now, and it feels like decades since they were projected as a 1-seed in the middle of the season, but I wouldn’t count that out just yet.

As it looks currently, Michigan State has 2/3-seed written all over it.

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