While college football is in the rearview mirror with Ohio State winning the title last month, Michigan State football fans are stuck wondering what the future of the program is.
The Spartans went 5-7 in Jonathan Smith's first season, missing a bowl game for a third straight year thanks to a horrendous performance in the season finale against Rutgers at home. It was fair to criticize Smith for the finish after a strong start to the season though Michigan State did surpass its projected win total of 4.5 games set by most betting sites.
The 2025 season is still about seven months away but Vegas is wasting no time opening up some early betting lines regarding projected win totals for each team.
According to VegasInsider, Michigan State's projected 2025 win total over/under is set at 4.5 which is actually just insanely low considering the strength of schedule and the fact that the Spartans are only going to get better compared to the 2024 season, in my opinion.
Some other notable Big Ten win totals include:
Michigan: 9
Illinois: 5.5
Indiana: 6
Ohio State: 10.5
Penn State: 9.5
Oregon: 10.5
Oregon and Ohio State are the presumed favorites to win the conference again while Sherrone Moore and Michigan are right there with Penn State as contenders. No one outside of Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan, Iowa, USC, and Nebraska has a win total projection of 7.5 or more in the Big Ten.
To me, it feels like Vegas is once again underestimating Michigan State. While I don't fully blame them for how poorly the 2024 season went and how it ended, I do think that setting the bar at 4.5 with the roster seemingly improving at every position is insane. There's just no way Michigan State settles for five wins again, especially with its favorable schedule.
Don't believe me? Tell me where there are eight losses in this schedule:
Game 1: Western Michigan
Game 2: Boston College
Game 3: Youngstown State
Game 4: at USC
Game 5: at Nebraska
Game 6: UCLA
Game 7: at Indiana
Game 8: Michigan
Game 9: at Minnesota
Game 10: Penn State
Game 11: at Iowa
Game 12: Maryland
All home games outside of Michigan and Penn State should be pretty comfortable wins. That's five victories right there. If Michigan State can steal one on the road against USC, Nebraska, Indiana, Minnesota, or Iowa, that already puts it at six wins on the season.
So the Vegas projection of 4.5 is low and if it opens up with that on the betting apps, I already know I'm smashing the over.