Michigan State basketball rightfully the "underdog" against No. 12 Michigan

Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo watches the Ducks warm up before the basketball game against Oregon during on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, at the Breslin Center East Lansing.
Michigan State's head coach Tom Izzo watches the Ducks warm up before the basketball game against Oregon during on Saturday, Feb. 8, 2025, at the Breslin Center East Lansing. | Nick King/Lansing State Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

When was the last time Michigan State basketball was considered the "underdog" and what was the final outcome? You'd have to flash it all the way back to... last weekend against Illinois in Champaign.

The Spartans were 6.5-point underdogs, coming off a horrendous loss to a bad Indiana team at home and Illinois was seemingly finding its stride. Michigan State was able to win that game by 14 points after capturing the lead late and going on a big run to end the game. The Spartans followed that win up with a nice victory over No. 13 Purdue at home.

Now Michigan State goes on the road as an underdog for the second time in three games, this time it's a much slimmer margin, according to DraftKings.

Line: Michigan -3.5
Over/Under: 149.5
Moneyline: Michigan -162 | Michigan State +136

Obviously Vegas thinks this will be close, as we all do, and the game should go down to the wire, but is it right that Michigan State is the underdog? Honestly, yes. The Spartans hit a bump in the road last week against Indiana and had lost 3-of-4 before beating Illinois and Purdue so Vegas might be worried that the cold streak might continue.

This line, however, is saying that whoever has the home-court advantage would likely be favored by the same amount and on a neutral court, this would be a toss-up. Which I agree with.

But Michigan has been playing all close games lately -- and winning them -- which means that one of these games is going to end in a tough loss. The Wolverines can't sustain winning by four or less each time out, eventually it's going to catch up with them.

Will that happen on Friday? I say yes.

Prediction: Michigan State 75, Michigan 71