Michigan State is in an exclusive club of national title contenders this season.
Numbers are being crunched by analytics experts and odds are being calculated and Michigan State’s chances are up there with the best teams in college basketball.
According to analytics expert Evan Miyakawa, Michigan State is one of 11 teams with legitimate odds to make the Final Four. In fact, the Spartans are in that exclusive club of teams with a 10 percent chance or better to make a Final Four in a few weeks.
Here are the teams that currently have a 10% or better chance of making the Final Four, based on simulations I just ran using current bracketology:
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 12, 2026
Michigan
Duke
Florida
Arizona
Houston
UConn
Illinois
Iowa State
Purdue
Michigan State
Gonzaga
Michigan State, Michigan, Illinois, and Purdue all have better than a 10 percent chance to make a Final Four which shows that the Big Ten is elite at the top this year. The Big Ten has the most legitimate Final Four contenders of any conference on this list and that should make Spartan fans feel a little more hopeful about winning Tom Izzo his second title.
The Spartans have beaten two teams on the list above. That alone should go to show that they have as good of a chance as anyone outside of Michigan, Duke, and Arizona to win it all.
Michigan State is hoping for a favorable draw
Earning that last 1-seed isn’t going to be easy, especially since Florida has been rolling lately and Houston, Iowa State, and UConn are also pushing for that final top seed.
Even if Michigan State is a 2-seed, there is a potential favorable draw that I wouldn’t mind seeing with Virginia as the Spartans’ 4-seed, Gonzaga as the 3-seed, and Florida, UConn, or Arizona as the 1-seed. I think the Spartans could get through this region and make it to the Final Four.
The experts are probably going to overlook Izzo and Michigan State again, but this team has the pieces that it needs to make a run and potentially win six straight games starting next week.
The Spartans are going to make a run at a national title this month and it’ll be up to Jeremy Fears playing like an All-American, the “big four” all playing well at the same time, and guys like Jordan Scott and Kur Teng perking up offensively again.
It won’t be easy, but winning it all is possible.