With the downfall of the football program, fans have turned their attention to Michigan State basketball, and fortunately, the Spartans return to action in a little over a week with an exhibition showdown against UConn.
Tom Izzo has assembled an impressive roster with returning vets mixed with plus portal additions and solid incoming freshmen. This team looks poised to repeat as Big Ten champs.
However, the Spartans were picked to finish sixth in the preseason Big Ten media poll last week, and Michigan State came in at No. 22 in the preseason AP Top 25 on Monday.
It’s wild to say, but the reigning Big Ten champs aren’t even projected to be a top-five team in their own conference. While I don’t agree with the lack of preseason love that the Spartans are receiving, I do know that there are certain metrics that favor Michigan State.
Two of those come from KenPom.
KenPom released its preseason ratings last week, and a common denominator for every national champion is an adjusted offense rating over 112 and an adjusted defense rating under 94. Michigan State is one of just 14 teams that fit into that elite category.
With Kenpom releasing his preseason ratings, here is every team who currently qualifies as a potential National champion (AdjO > 112, AdjD < 94)
— Kody Malstrom (@kmalstrom) October 13, 2025
Houston
Iowa St
Tennessee
Kentucky
Florida
UCLA
Michigan
San Diego St
Kansas
St Johns
UConn
Ole Miss
Michigan St
Illinois
Along with Michigan State as a contender from the Big Ten, UCLA, Michigan, and Illinois also qualify, per this key metric. Shockingly absent from the list is Purdue, the consensus No. 1 team in the conference — and the country.
It’s good to see that Michigan State fits the metrics of annual national champions, and it feels like that’s at least the closest to the correct assessment of the Spartans before the season tips off.