Another season is upon us, and for the third time since Mark Dantonio retired in the winter of 2020, Michigan State football will be breaking in a new head coach.
First, it was Mel Tucker back in 2020 and while he had a rough first season as head coach, he found a way to bounce back in a hurry and he led the Spartans to an 11-2 season in 2021. He was fired early in 2023 for an off-the-field incident and Jonathan Smith was promptly hired in 2024 to bring the program back to relevance — but he couldn’t do that in his two seasons.
Now it’s up to Pat Fitzgerald and he’ll be taking over what can only really be considered a “mess” that was left by Smith. The program is in a worse place now than when Smith took over somehow.
Fitzgerald will have to try and turn things around with a pretty difficult schedule awaiting him in 2026.
So how will the Spartans do, game-by-game? Prediction time.
Predicting Michigan State’s win-loss record in 2026
The schedule doesn’t see teams like Penn State, Ohio State, or USC, but it’s still going to be tough with Oregon, Michigan, Washington, and Notre Dame riddled throughout.
So without further ado, let’s do a quick game-by-game prediction:
- Toledo — W
- Eastern Michigan — W
- at No. 4 Notre Dame — L
- Nebraska — W
- at Wisconsin — L
- Illinois — W
- Northwestern — W
- at UCLA — L
- at No. 16 Michigan — L
- No. 17 Washington — W
- No. 2 Oregon — L
- at Rutgers — W
Ultimately, I believe the Spartans are going to exceed expectations and get back to a bowl game for the first time in five years thanks to some really good coaching in tough situations. Games like Nebraska, Illinois, Washington, and even Rutgers wouldn’t be wins under the previous coaching staff, but Fitzgerald is going to find a way to coach his team up in those toss-up games.
Washington is my upset pick of the season and, honestly, Michigan was almost chosen as well.
Per usual, Michigan State will face a bit of a gauntlet stretch in October and November, starting with road games against UCLA and Michigan and concluding with home games against Washington and Oregon. The Spartans will face three ranked teams in a row and unfortunately they’ll go just 1-2 against them.
As for the rest of the schedule, Michigan State will handle Rutgers, Northwestern, Toledo, and Eastern Michigan with relative ease while games against Illinois, Wisconsin, and Nebraska will go down to the wire with the Spartans going 2-1 in the latter group of games.
A 7-5 record and a bowl berth with a chance to win eight games in Year 1 of Fitzgerald? That would be a successful season in everyone’s book.
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