Happy Selection Sunday to all who celebrate. Michigan State fans have to be pretty excited to watch the Selection Show for a second straight season after years of mediocrity and sneaking into the NCAA Tournament as 7-10 seeds.
Michigan State‘s only worry on Selection Sunday this year is if it’s going to get that final 2-seed or fall to a 3-seed after a quarterfinal loss in the Big Ten Tournament.
A stress-free Selection Sunday is the best, and I think I speak for all Michigan State fans when I say that this is much better than worrying about if the Spartans are going to make the field of 68. The years from 2021-24 took years of many Michigan State fans’ lives.
The only other concern for a team like Michigan State that’s entering the NCAA Tournament as a top four seed is who will be paired in the same region.
For that reason, I decided to construct the ideal 2026 NCAA Tournament region for Tom Izzo and MSU.
Based on projected seeding by CBS Sports (with some changes), I went through and picked the best matchup for Michigan State at every seed line to create the “perfect region”.
- Florida
- Michigan State
- Virginia
- Nebraska
- Texas Tech
- North Carolina
- Miami
- Utah State
- Villanova
- Texas
- Northern Iowa
- Akron
- Wright State
- Idaho
- Lehigh
- Prairie View A&M
Michigan State being the 2-seed is my own prediction, and I just don’t see how the committee puts Purdue ahead of the Spartans after Izzo and Co. won the head-to-head battle two weeks ago in West Lafayette. This Big Ten Tournament run shouldn’t make up for the Boilermakers’ horrendous end to the regular season.
We will see how the committee sees that situation on Sunday evening.
Explaining Michigan State’s “ideal” region
So, to create Michigan State’s ideal region, I went through every projected seed line and picked the team that I thought the Spartans would have the best chance to beat.
Let’s start with the 1-5 seeds in the region:
- Florida
- Michigan State
- Virginia
- Nebraska
- Texas Tech
Florida, in my opinion, is the worst of the 1-seeds. I think the Gators are very good, but they have more weaknesses than Arizona, Duke, and Michigan. Virginia at the 3-seed is also favorable because I don’t think the Cavaliers have been very heavily tested this year — their best non-conference win is Texas and they were 1-3 against ranked ACC teams.
I would also love to see a Michigan State vs. Nebraska rematch because I truly think the Spartans are the better team and Alabama and Kansas are a little too streaky for my liking at the 4-seed. Lastly, Texas Tech is without its best player for the remainder of the season. I’d much rather see a shorthanded Texas Tech team than red-hot programs like St. John’s, Arkansas, or Wisconsin.
Now let’s take a look at seeds 6-10.
6. North Carolina
7. Miami
8. Utah State
9. Villanova
10. Texas
Michigan State has already beaten North Carolina with ease once and now the Tar Heels are without their best player for the rest of the season. Miami plays in a weak conference and the Hurricanes are just 2-5 against ranked teams. I like Michigan State’s chances there, especially since the Hurricanes have two familiar faces that Izzo would know how to game plan for (Tre Donaldson, Malik Reneau).
Utah State hasn’t faced a single ranked team this season and is just 4-4 in Quad 1 games. Villanova may be a new-age blue blood thanks to Jay Wright, but he’s been gone for a while now and this isn’t the same program as when he was in charge. Villanova is 2-6 vs. Quad 1 teams and is 0-5 against ranked opponents this year. Texas has 14 losses this year and is honestly lucky to even make the field, and the Longhorns are just 7-13 vs. Quad 1 and 2 opponents. They’re also ice-cold, losing 5-of-6 games entering the NCAA Tournament.
The 11-16 seeds were mostly toss-ups. It was tough to compare these seeds because most college basketball fans aren’t well-versed in the weaker power conference and mid-major category of teams.
11. Northern Iowa
12. Akron
13. Wright State
14. Idaho
15. Lehigh
16. Prairie View A&M
Northern Iowa is 11-12 against Quads 1-3 teams.
Akron hasn’t beaten a Quad 1 or 2 team.
Wright State hasn’t beaten Quad 1 or 2 teams and has a losing record vs. Quad 3.
Idaho had 14 losses this year, no wins against Quads 1-2 teams, and was just 9-9 in the Big Sky.
Lehigh is 1-8 against Quad 1-2 teams and had 16 losses this season, beginning the year 4-11.
Prairie View A&M finished eighth in the SWAC and was 0-6 vs. Quads 1-3.
To me, this is the ideal region for Michigan State. It likely won’t happen this way, but if Michigan State wants the easiest path to a Final Four, it would be against these 15 teams.