With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, Michigan State basketball fans are finally resting easy. For the first time in what feels like a decade (it's really been just a few years), Michigan State isn't going to be sweating out an NCAA Tournament berth on Selection Sunday.
That's right, the 24-5 Spartans will be heading to the NCAA Tournament as a projected 2-seed and there's still a chance they could earn a No. 1 seed if they win out and make it to the Big Ten Tournament title game.
There's no doubt about it, this team is special.
And the analytics agree. In fact, according to college basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa, Michigan State is one of a handful of teams that fits into the "Final Four potential" category thanks to solid offensive and defensive efficiency this season.
Less than 2 weeks from Selection Sunday, here is the current predicted efficiency landscape in college basketball from https://t.co/cegyfz96ax, split into tiers.
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) March 5, 2025
There's a big gap between the Duke, Houston, Auburn, and the rest of the country 👇 pic.twitter.com/KLcoeaJ05J
The graph shows offensive efficiency rating on the y-axis and defensive efficiency on the x-axis. As you can see, Michigan State's defensive efficiency rating is higher than its offensive rating, but it's just good enough to give it a nod as one of the 10 teams squarely in (not touching the line) the "Final Four potential" category.
Only three teams are in the "title favorites" category and those are Duke, Auburn, and Houston -- no surprises there.
According to the graph, Michigan State has the best Final Four potential of any team in the Big Ten and one of the best chances to make the national semifinal of any team in the country. There are 13 teams that have Final Four potential or better, and Michigan State is one of them.
Now let's live up to the analytics and make a deep run. Tom Izzo will be ready.