No one is giving Michigan State much of a shot to beat No. 3 Notre Dame in South Bend on Saturday night, but the egregious spread might be a little misleading.
Michigan State has a chance, and there are a few reasons for that.
The Spartans won the last time they were in South Bend a decade ago and have won 11 of the past 20 meetings in this historic rivalry. But Notre Dame — a 29.5-point favorite — is one of the top national title contenders in the country this season. Despite that, the Spartans might actually have a shot.
Why should Spartan fans feel good about Michigan State’s chances against the No. 3 Irish?
1. Pat Fitzgerald has upset Notre Dame in South Bend before (twice)
While this may not hold a ton of weight when it comes to this year’s team, Pat Fitzgerald has beaten the Irish in South Bend as an underdog before and he knows what it takes.
The Irish were heavy favorites as a 7-2 team ranked No. 18 in the country back in 2014 over Fitzgerald’s 3-6 Northwestern team and no one expected an upset, but the Wildcats were able to pull it off, winning 43-40 in overtime despite trailing by double figures after one quarter.
If there’s a coach who’s not going to be intimidated by Notre Dame Stadium and Touchdown Jesus, it’s Fitzgerald. He’s been here before, won as a coach and a player as an underdog in both, and he doesn’t get intimidated by the atmosphere.
2. The weather
Any time the weather is bad, the underdog has a fighting chance.
The weather in South Bend on Saturday night is going to be sloppy and rainy and that just opens the door for a Michigan State upset. There’s not going to be a ton of passing and the ground game might have to take center stage for both teams and that should play into Michigan State’s favor.
We’ll tough on that more in a second.
But Michigan State is going to have to muck things up and really hope to win the battle in the trenches and with the weather being what it’s supposed to be, the Spartans could find a way to force turnovers and as long as they protect the ball, they’re going to have a shot.
3. The run game
Notre Dame is having an identity crisis on the ground. A year after having one of the best backfields in college football, the Irish don’t have a clear RB1 which has been an issue through the first two games against Wisconsin and Rice.
Aneyas Williams has 29 carries for 119 yards, averaging just 4.1 yards per touch and the second option is Nolan James Jr. who has 13 carries for 38 yards which is 3.7 per touch.
Michigan State, on the other hand, is coming off its best rushing performance in years and Cam Edwards is one of the best rushers in the Big Ten. He has Marvis Parrish behind him as well as Jaz Patterson and Brandon Tullis. The run game could carry the Spartans to an upset on Saturday.
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