Friday night’s showdown with Northern Iowa is what we call a “trap game”. It’s sandwiched perfectly between Michigan State’s dominant win over No. 2 Duke in the Champions Classic and a road game against Tennessee down in Knoxville. This is what you’d call a “look-ahead game” and coaches not named Tom Izzo might not be prepared for this.
Fortunately Izzo is a Hall of Famer and he’s dealt with dozens upon dozens of trap games throughout his career and he’s good at making sure his team remains focused.
Northern Iowa isn’t on the same level as Duke or Tennessee, but it’s going to present a new test that Michigan State must pass. The Panthers are a high-scoring team, averaging 92.7 points per game, with a 2-1 record to begin the season. Michigan State will be its toughest battle by far, but the Spartans can’t get caught overlooking the offensive-minded Panthers.
It’s time for some bold predictions ahead of an appetizer before the main course that is Tennessee.
Two Spartans record double-doubles
You already know who my first double-double prediction is going to be. It’s going to be the preseason All-American who’s averaging a double-double through the first three games and who leads the nation in assists. Jeremy Fears Jr. will be the first — and most obvious — double-double, but the other one might surprise you.
While Jordan Scott messed around and flirted with a triple double because of his six blocks against Duke, the one player who has all the momentum in the world right now is Cam Ward.
Scott is a walking double-double waiting to happen and he will probably have a triple-double before his MSU career is over, but Ward got back on track with a confidence-boosting 14-point showing against Duke and he was strong on the glass with six rebounds. Izzo is going to want Ward to keep that momentum going against Northern Iowa so he’s ready for Tennessee, so we’ll see him play closer to 25 minutes.
Ward will finish with 13 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks.
Michigan State shoots 50 percent from 3
While Northern Iowa scores a lot of points, it also gives up a ton. The Panthers — a tourney team a year ago, by the way — held their first opponent to “just” 70 points but that opponent was the Cornell (IA) Rams. Their second game was a 98-83 loss to Furman, and then they beat Green Bay but gave up 76 points in the process.
Michigan State is not Cornell (IA), Green Bay, nor is it Furman, so Northern Iowa is going to have a nightmare of a time defensively.
Ball movement is going to kill the Panthers on Friday night as Fears and Co. will wear them down defensively and find nothing but open real estate on the perimeter. Michigan State will take advantage and shoot 50-plus percent from deep.
Kur Teng gets hot, Jasiah Jervis stays hot, and Fears even gets in on the fun with a couple of threes of his own. Michigan State goes 11-for-22 from three.
MSU holds Northern Iowa under 60 points
Northern Iowa has played one road game this season and it lost by 15 to Furman. That margin is going to be even wider against Michigan State and there’s zero chance that the Panthers score 80-plus for a fourth straight time to begin the year — especially not against this elite Spartan defense.
While it’s “only Northern Iowa”, the defense is going to remain locked in and the intensity will be something the Panthers haven’t dealt with before. The defense will be smothering.
Northern Iowa goes as Greyson Uelmen (19.7 points) goes and a combination of Fears and Scott will shut him down.
A team that averages 93 points per game should definitely reach 60 points, right? Not against Izzo’s defensive-minded Spartans. The Panthers will get a real wake-up call and they’ll be held under 60 points. Michigan State wins 84-59.
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