3. This game is much more uncomfortable than we'd expect
The line heading into Tuesday night's game is about 13.5 points in favor of the Spartans which seems right for a 17-2 team against an 11-9 team at home. Not only that, but this 17-2 team hasn't lost since before Thanksgiving so it's been playing some incredible basketball.
But recent games have shown that the Spartans may be hitting a small rough patch. For a team on a 12-game winning streak, a "rough stretch" would be a handful of games that were decided by single-digits and came down to the wire. That would be the Rutgers, Illinois, and Penn State games. All three were decided by fewer than 10 points.
The Spartans haven't been quite as dominant over the past three games as they were against the likes of Northwestern, Washington, Nebraska, and Minnesota (the first time).
On the other hand, Minnesota has three straight wins over quality opponents on a streak that was kickstarted by a half-court buzzer-beater to beat Michigan. This team is playing with some confidence right now which is why I think this game will be much closer than we expect.
I'm not saying Michigan State loses, but I think this will be a patented "never feels good" win in which the Gophers stay within striking distance for an entire 40 minutes.
Michigan State wins, but it won't cover and it likely only wins by 5-6 points.