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By Joe Summers
After a 62-58 loss to Penn State, the 18-7 #19 Michigan State Spartans hope to get back on track when they host the 18-7 #12 Illinois Fighting Illini today at 12:00 p.m. EST. WynnBET has the Spartans as 1.5-point underdogs and +105 on the moneyline (bet $10 to profit $10.50) while the over/under is set at 138 for this Michigan State vs Illinois matchup.
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This is how we’re betting today’s game:
Michigan State vs Illinois Prediction
The Spartans have now lost three of four and are just 1-4 against the spread (ATS) in their last five. Their offense is sputtering as they’ve only eclipsed 65 points once in that stretch and now take on a Fighting Illini defense that ranks 15th nationally in defensive effective field goal percentage.
Illinois is no slouch on the offensive end either, with the 24th-best adjusted offensive efficiency. They shoot well from all over the floor and boast the 25th-highest offensive rebounding rate in the country. The Spartans did outrebound the Illini 41-27 in their 56-55 loss to them last month, but Naismith Player of the Year candidate Kofi Cockburn will play today after missing that first game and he’ll make life much tougher on Michigan State’s big men.
Despite struggling to score recently, the Spartans still have the 28th-best offensive efficiency behind the 10th-highest 3-point shooting rate in college basketball, so they have the ability to shoot the lights out if they’re hot. And despite winning five of seven outright, Illinois has struggled against the spread lately.
The Fighting Illini are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. Meanwhile, despite a 10-2 outright record, Michigan State is merely 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
Neither team has been overly impressive of late, but I tend to trust Illinois more given they already beat the Spartans even without Cockburn. A win would tie the Illini with Purdue for the Big Ten Conference lead, and I expect their 14th-ranked 2-point defense to make life tough inside for Michigan State’s 174th-ranked 2-point offense.
The Spartans only shot 3/19 from beyond the arc in the first matchup and I expect them to improve on that number, but Illinois was just 3/7 from the free-throw line and we should see more attempts at a higher percentage with Kofi in the lineup.
Give me Illinois -1.5 (-110) to complete the series sweep and continue Michigan State’s struggles.
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