How Michigan State basketball can still win the Big Ten Championship
A look at the scenarios in which Tom Izzo can hang his eighth Big Ten title banner for Michigan State Basketball.
For several weeks, it appeared as though Michigan State Basketball was firmly out of the Big Ten title race after starting 3-4 in conference following three consecutive losses to Iowa, Wisconsin and Nebraska, respectively, in mid-January.
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Most analysts presumed that the Big Ten was going to come down to a battle between Iowa, Maryland, and Indiana. Michigan State bounced back from their early conference season struggles, winning five out of six games while knocking off Big Ten front-runners Maryland and Indiana along the way.
Then some bizarre outcomes started to unfold.
Maryland lost two games in a row, including a road loss last night to Minnesota which had previously been winless in conference play.
Big Ten cellar-dweller Penn State helped create chaos by knocking off Iowa and Indiana in the last two weeks.
Michigan State has now won six of its last seven games after dousing the red-hot Badgers last night, who were winners of seven straight. The Big Ten race is now an interesting one heading down the stretch.
Let’s take a look at the Big Ten basketball standings on ESPN following the games of February 18th:
With four games left, there are seven teams within two games of first place. All three teams ahead of Michigan State have difficult schedules remaining, with plenty of room to slip up.
Let’s break down what has to happen for Michigan State to win a share of the Big Ten regular season championship.
Michigan State Basketball Big Ten title scenarios:
Michigan State:
For any of this to be possible, Michigan State has to win out. The Spartans will have to take down Ohio State twice, Big Ten winless Rutgers on the road and the pesky Penn State Nittany Lions at home.
That Penn State game is a scary one, as the Nittany Lions have won two out of their last three, shocking the world with victories over Iowa and Indiana. Ohio State has won three in a row and defeated Kentucky earlier in the season. However, the Spartans will be favored in all of their remaining games.
Indiana:
Indiana has to lose two games. The Hoosiers’ remaining four games are:
Ideally, Indiana would lose to Purdue and Maryland at home. Indiana hasn’t lost a Big Ten home game this year, but Purdue and Maryland are definitely talented enough to conquer the Hoosiers on their home court.
Iowa:
Like Indiana, Iowa also has to lose two games for Michigan State to share the Big Ten title. The Hawkeyes have to play:
- vs. Wisconsin
- @ Ohio State
- vs. No. 22 Indiana
- @ Michigan
Iowa needs to lose against Indiana at home and also lose one out of its other three games. For this scenario, let’s say they lose to Wisconsin.
Maryland:
Maryland is just one game ahead of Michigan State in the Big Ten standings. Therefore, the Terrapins will just have to fall once against the following four teams:
- vs. Michigan
- @ No. 17 Purdue
- vs. Illinois
- @ No. 22 Indiana
The best-case scenario would be Maryland losing on the road to Purdue and then beating Indiana in Assembly Hall.
The ideal most-likely scenario for Michigan State to win a share of the Big Ten title:
- Michigan State wins its remaining four Big Ten games
- Indiana loses to Purdue and Maryland
- Iowa loses to Indiana and Wisconsin
- Maryland loses to Purdue
If it played out that way, Michigan State would win a share of the Big Ten Championship along with Iowa, Indiana, Maryland and possibly even Purdue after each of the teams would finish with a 13-5 conference record. It would be the Spartans’ first Big Ten title since Draymond Green’s senior season in 2012.
While another Big Ten Championship would be great. Denzel Valentine and company are just trying to get better every single game to work toward their ultimate goal: winning the national championship.