College Football Playoff: Week 10 results from a Michigan State viewpoint
Writing about
‘s College Football Playoff chances feels a little disconnected from reality. This is probably how a lot of us feel:
Not only did MSU drop to No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings, but they just aren’t playing well enough to get to the playoff. The secondary will give up 500 yards to J.T. Barrett and the
passing game if it continues to play like this.
But despite the gloom and doom that looms over the team just now, Michigan State does, in fact, have a chance to make the playoff, it just needs a whole lot of help. We have been keeping an eye on the rest of the country in this space and we will continue to do so.
Now that MSU has a loss it really needs to take aim at that fourth playoff spot. State doesn’t need to be the best team in the committee’s eyes, just the fourth-best team. Unfortunately, early struggles and a last-second win against Michigan means that the Spartans don’t rate very highly.
When they were undefeated, they were ranked below six teams, so this loss means they have to be competing against two-loss teams for that spot or they really have no shot. So, looking at that fourth spot means figuring out which conference gets eliminated.
At this point, it seems to me that the Big 12 and SEC have secured a spot. Too much needs to happen for them to be left out. In the SEC you have one-loss Alabama, Florida and LSU all ahead of MSU right now.
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The Big 12 will have an undefeated or one-loss champ. If it is a one-loss champ their resume will be far superior to MSU’s. Right now, Baylor and Oklahoma State are undefeated with just a couple games left. Oklahoma and TCU have one-loss each. They will beat each other up, but someone is coming out of that with at most one loss.
So the vulnerable conferences are ACC, Pac-12 and Notre Dame. Let’s take those in reverse order and start with Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have two very winnable games and then a competitive game against Stanford left. The Stanford game is really MSU’s best shot at getting Notre Dame, currently ranked No. 4, out of the playoff.
Assuming Stanford beats Notre Dame, MSU would need Stanford and Utah — the one-loss teams in the Pac-12 — to each lose one more. So MSU needs one or the other to lose in the regular season and then have the two-loss team win the championship.
And what about the ACC? Despite the fact that it has the No. 1 ranked team in the CFP standings, it really doesn’t have much else going for it. The best case scenario for MSU is to have Clemson lose in the ACC championship game against North Carolina. And to be extra safe it would help for North Carolina to lose one more game before the championship.
MSU needs two of those three scenarios to be have a realistic shot at the playoffs — oh, and beat Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State and Iowa. But as Jim Mora once famously said: “playoffs!?”
The Spartans have to get a whole lot better before that happens.
The most important result
Nov 7, 2015; Lincoln, NE, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers defensive tackle Vincent Valentine (98) celebrates as the clock runs down against the Michigan State Spartans at Memorial Stadium. The Cornhuskers won 39-38. Mandatory Credit: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports
Nebraska 39, No. 7 Michigan State 38: Most people thought MSU would first fall at Ohio State, but they got knocked off early against a talented, but inferior team. There are no two ways about it, State blew that game — a game they really couldn’t afford to blow.
Results that help
Nov 7, 2015; Bloomington, IN, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes quarterback C.J. Beathard (16) jumps over the defense to score a touchdown during the first half of the game against the Indiana Hoosiers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
No. 9 Iowa 35, Indiana 27: Iowa keeps winning and that’s a good thing for MSU. They are up to No. 5 this week in the CFP rankings and if they can stay there then MSU will have beaten two top-five teams on its way to a Big Ten Championship.
No. 17 Michigan 49, Rutgers 16: The way Michigan has been crushing inferior opponents — save Minnesota to whom they should have lost — is what MSU needed to be doing. The more Michigan does this, the better MSU’s win looks against them. Until the last game when they need to lose to Ohio State to avoid the three-way tie for first place — that is, if MSU loses to OSU.
Navy 45, No. 13 Memphis 20: There were some rumblings about an undefeated Memphis sneaking into the playoffs if things fell just right. Well, that’s over thanks to the United States Navy.
Too early to tell but probably matter results
Nov 7, 2015; Stillwater, OK, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah (38) celebrates after the game against the TCU Horned Frogs at Boone Pickens Stadium. OSU won 49-29. Mandatory Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports
No. 14 Oklahoma St 49, No. 8 TCU 29: At first glance, the No. 8 team losing seems like it helps MSU. But all this result did was catapult Oklahoma State into the Top 10. A loss to one of the Big 12 powerhouses is good, but unless it’s to a cellar dweller, it doesn’t mean too much right away.
No. 4 Alabama 30, No. 2 LSU 16: Similar to the Big 12, the SEC games featuring two top teams don’t really change the equation too much. Both Alabama and LSU are still ranked far ahead of the Spartans despite identical records.
Results that could have helped but then they didn’t
Nov 7, 2015; Gainesville, FL, USA; Florida Gators place kicker Austin Hardin (16) is congratulated by linebacker Jarrad Davis (40) and teammates after kicking the go ahead 43-yard field goal during the fourth quarter against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Florida defeated Vanderbilt 9-7. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
No. 10 Florida 9, Vanderbilt 7: If Florida would have earned its second loss, it could have played spoiler in the SEC championship game. But they pulled out a fourth quarter win in a very ugly game.
No. 1 Clemson 23, No. 16 Florida St 13: This could easily have put in the ‘Results That Hurt’ category because it is the last realistic shot for Clemson to lose. Instead, they solidified their No. 1 ranking.
Results that hurt
Nov 7, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Brandon Wimbush (12) scrambles with the ball as Pittsburgh Panthers defensive lineman Rori Blair (92) chases during the fourth quarter at Heinz Field. Notre Dame won 42-30. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
No. 5 Notre Dame 42, Pitt 30: Former MSU defensive coordinator could have helped MSU’s cause by beating Notre Dame. This one hurts because the chances for a Notre Dame are getting smaller each week.
No. 21 Northwestern 23, Penn St 21: This would have been a good win for Penn State and given MSU an opponent with a good record when it plays Penn State in the final game of the season.
Next: MSU Recruiting: 5 ideal replacements for 2016 football decommits
Arkansas 53, No. 18 Ole Miss 52 (OT):Ole Miss had the best chance of mucking up the SEC race by winning out and giving the conference a two-loss champ.
won in the most ridiculous and improbable way and it hurt MSU in doing so.
Key Games This Week
- Miami at No. 23 North Carolina
- No. 2 Alabama at No. 17 Mississippi State
- Arkansas at No. 9 LSU
- Oregon at No. 7 Stanford
- No. 12 Oklahoma at No. 6 Baylor
- Minnesota at No. 5 Iowa
- No. 10 Utah at Arizona